Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Younger is Better


This weekend I watched a number of games which featured very young players as their go to guys; namely the Hawks, Magic, Grizzlies, Trailblazers, Timberwolves and Sonics. Each of those teams has a player who is 22 years old or younger that is having big time success! It made me think about how many other players that same age are making a name for themselves, so I decided to compile a list. I’ll rank them based on their performance this year, as well as give commentary on what type of player they will become. The list is pretty eye opening, once you put them all together.

We’ll count down to number one. I have included John Hollinger’s PER stats. Statistical Averages will follow this format:

Points – Rebounds – Assists – Steals – Blocks – FG% - Minutes per Game

Let’s get started!

Greg Oden
You can’t have a list of ulta-talented young players without having Greg Oden on it. I believe he will be a very good center, who will rebound and guard the paint for the Blazers, just like they need. I saw him on TNT last week and he look much better with the additional 30 lbs of muscle! However, I’m not sure that is the smartest thing with the upcoming rehab on his knee. Is it wise to add so much weight up top before the knee is healthy?? I hope he is just fine, because I love his personality and I’m rooting for him to succeed.

JR Smith (22 yrs)
10.9 – 2.3 – 2.2 – 1.11 – 0.11 – 40% - 21 min
PER – 13.88
JR has more pure talent than most players in the League, but his desire and discipline hurt him tremendously. He has a great shooting touch and is as athletic as they come. My only hope is that he’ll put it all together in the next year or two and show the world what he can do! Melo and JR could be a deadly duo (as long as they still have Camby to play a little defense).

Corey Brewer (21 yrs)
4.7 – 4.3 – 1.5 – 0.76 – 0.35 – 31% - 21 min
PER – 7.64
I wasn’t high on Brewer coming into this season. I think his shot is way too streaky and he doesn’t handle the ball well enough to be effective off the dribble. That being said, he has shown a lot of heart and hustle the past few games. He’s rebounding at an alarming rate. He’s averaging 8.3 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists with a steal and a block in the month of December. That’s pretty nice for a rookie. Granted he’s shooting 33%, but hopefully that comes around with time. Brewer could be a very good small forward for the next 10 years, if he keeps developing his raw skills and keeps this motor going.

Linas Kleiza (22 yrs)
10.7 – 3.5 – 1 – 0.63 – 0.05 – 49% - 22 min
PER – 13.91
Linas has a great shooting stroke and a knack for scoring. His tends to be a little streaky at times, but that comes with youth. The Nuggets are looking good as long as Kleiza and Smith continue to develop.

Daniel Gibson (21 yrs)
12.8 – 2.8 – 3.3 – 0.90 – 0.29 – 47% - 34 min
PER – 13.60
Daniel is a two guard in a point guard’s body. That’s the only reason he is not ranked higher. That being said, I love his confidence! He thrives when taking big shots and has a great stroke. He can dribble penetrate and get in the lane with ease, but he needs to continue to work on finishing in traffic and dishing out to open men on the perimeter. Basically, he needs to work on his point guard skills.

Kyle Lowry (21 yrs)
9.6 – 4.4 – 4 – 1.05 – 0.40 – 39% - 26 min
PER – 14.48
Kyle will blow up this year, if they would just give him the starting job over Damon Stoudamire. He is only 6’ point guard, but he plays like he is at least 6’5”! He loves to mix it up in the paint and rebound! He is a very good scorer when ask to do so and understands how to find his teammates in scoring position. The Grizzlies are doing themselves a disservice by playing Damon so many minutes. Let Kyle Free!

Rajon Rondo (21yrs)
8.3 – 3.8 – 5.2 – 1.78 – 0.17 – 53% - 32 min
PER – 14.08
A lot was said about Rajon’s ability to run the point with three great players on the court with him. Those concerns were absurd! Rajon is the perfect compliment to the current Big Three. He’s super athletic, unselfish, quick with the ball and plays good defense. I expect him to continue to grow and get even better as the year progresses. He’ll never average a lot of assists with KG, Pierce and Allen on the floor, because so much of the offense runs through them and they are gifted passers themselves, but he’s doing enough to help them win ball games. That’s all that can be expected.

Sean William (21 yrs)
6.7 – 4.7 – 0.3 – 0.53 – 1.94 – 56% - 19 min
PER – 17.10
Why is Sean Williams not starting!!!!!! This is ridiculous! The Nets are losing and Coach Frank is still trotting out scrubs like Malik Allen and Jason Collins to run with Kidd, Jefferson and Carter. I simply don’t understand it. Williams is a superior offensive player (even as a rookie), defender, runner and shot blocker than either of those two! I mean, he’s averaging just under 2 blocks per game in only 19 minutes of play!! He’ll learn to stay out of foul trouble. Just send him out there and baptize him by fire! I love his potential and think he’ll be a beast in the future. Hopefully, it’s sooner rather than later.

Dorell Wright (22 yrs)
6.4 – 5.2 – 1.2 – 0.58 – 0.42 – 46% - 22 min
PER – 14.82
I’ve been following Dorell Wright for a couple of years now. I love his pure talent and ability. He just needs to put it together between the ears. Well, it looks like he’s starting to do just that. He was named the starter three games ago and he’s exploded on the scene! He’s averaging 13 points, 10 boards and 2.3 assists in those three games, plus the Heat have won 2 out of the 3! He’ll have his ups and downs, but I believe there will be much more ups as the season progresses. Pat Riley said he could see the Heat being lead by Wade and Wright in the future… who I am to not believe Riley?

Yi Jianlian (20 yrs)
9.4 – 5.4 – 0.8 – 0.53 – 1 – 43% - 26 min
PER – 12.85
Yi has been a pleasant surprise for the Bucks this year. He has a nice shot and is ok on the boards. He is much more athletic than most people expected. If he really is just 20 years old, then he has the skill set to become a very very good player both inside and out!

Tyrus Thomas (21 yrs)
6.4 – 4.9 – 1 – 0.69 – 0.69 – 41% - 19 min
PER – 11.24
Incredible athleticism mixed with a high motor, usually means success in the NBA. I believe it will for Tyrus, but he still has a ways to go. He had a few nice games this year, but the consistency is still lacking in a major way. He has the heart and desire, so I believe he will continue to work on his skills and he’ll turn into a very dominant force on the defensive end with enough offensive skills to help his team win; however, that’s still a couple of years away, in my opinion.

Jeff Green (21 yrs)
9.1 – 5.3 – 0.7 – 0.38 – 0.33 – 44% - 22 min
PER – 10.89
Jeff Green has really impressed me this year. When he gets at least 30 minutes in a game, he is a force on the glass! He has a very nice shot and is an above average slasher. It’s a shame he’s not getting more minutes for the Sonics, but I hope PJ changes that very soon. He excels where Durant struggles, which is why they will be such a great team for years to come!

Darko Milicic (22 yrs)
7.7 – 6.7 – 1.2 – 0.5 – 1.92 – 43% - 29 min
PER – 9.82
I’ve been a long time believer in Darko, and have gotten countless crap for it. This year, the Grizzlies are giving him an opportunity and he’s doing an adequate job, when healthy. I still see more in him. I believe he will average around 12, 8 & 2 blocks by the end of the year, but again, that might just be my unfounded bias.

Ronnie Brewer (22 yrs)
13.7 – 2.8 – 2.5 – 2.19 – 0.14 – 52% - 31 min
PER – 19.04
Dynamite in a bottle! Ronnie has given the Jazz great production in the one area that was most lacking last year! I love his athleticism and defense. He’s the perfect player for Jerry Sloan! It would be nice if he improved his jump shot, but he is extremely effective even with out it. He’ll be a mainstay in the Jazz starting lineup for years to come.

Andrea Bargnani (22 yrs)
11.9 – 4.5 – 1.3 – 0.18 – 0.47 – 40% - 25 min
PER – 12.46
Bargnani has a beautiful shot and is decent when he puts the ball on the floor and goes to the rim. I also love his confidence. His major weaknesses are his defense and rebounding. One he puts his effort and attention to that aspect of his game, he’ll be extremely good. I don’t believe he’ll ever be as good as Dirk, but he can be a step under that level.

Al Horford (21 yrs)
8.8 – 10.8 – 1.1 – 1 – 1.16 – 49% - 33 min
PER – 13.73
Al had been a beast on the glass! He also has a very nice offensive game; he just doesn’t get many opportunities right now. He’ll be an 18 point and 12 rebound guy in the league for years to come! Absolutely love his talent. This was the best draft pick the Hawks have made in years!

Andris Biedrins (21 yrs)
11 – 10 – 1.5 – 0.60 – 1.45 – 63% - 29 min
PER – 19.34
Andris has the ugliest free throw shot in the league, but he’s a big time hustler and finisher around the basket, which is why he’s on this list. Truly, the Warriors are the perfect team for him. He is athletic enough to run up and down the floor and he is active enough to grab all the missed shots his teammates throw up! I don’t think he’ll do much more than what he’s doing now, but that’s really not needed. He’s a very good player in his own right.

Marvin Williams (21 yrs)
15.6 – 5.9 – 1.9 – 1.22 – 0.44 – 48% - 35 min
PER - 16.83
Marvin is finally starting to show his talent! We say that, but the truth is he’s only 21 years old, so he is progressing quite nicely. He has a knack for scoring the basketball and is decent on the glass and in passing lanes. I would still like to see him kick it up a few notches in the consistency department, but he seems to be growing with each game, so I’m sure that will be coming. I see a 20 ppg, 7 rebound, 3 assists per game player in Marvin.

Monta Ellis (22 yrs)
16.5 – 4 – 3.3 – 1.5 – 0.55 – 48% - 34 min
PER – 17.12
Monta came storming on the scene last year and proved that he is an offensive force. Every time Baron misses a game, Monta comes up BIG! That goes to show he only needs more opportunities. He’ll easily average 20 points per game, and can be a 5 rebound, 5 assist guy, if he continues to develop.

Andrew Bynum (20 yrs)
10.9 – 9.7 – 1.5 – 0.53 – 2 – 59% - 26 min
PER – 20.58
I have not been a big fan of Bynum, until this year. I’ve already written about him on my blog, so I’ll make this short, but he’ll eaily average a double double this year and has the potential to be a 20 point – 10 rebound guy in the next 3 years. He has a lot to learn still, but he’s coming around nicely.

LaMarcus Aldridge (22 yrs)
18.7 – 7.7 – 0.8 – 0.7 – 1.25 – 53% - 34 min
PER – 19.81
I actually expected a bigger year from LaMarcus! I thought he could be a 20 point – 10 rebound guy this year! Look who they have on the Blazers…. NOBODY!! However, he is scoring 18 points per game. He just needs to apply himself a little more on the glass. He is the perfect compliment to Oden, so I look for big things in his future!

Rudy Gay (21 yrs)
18.7 – 5.5 – 1.7 – 1.35 – 0.95 – 47% - 36 min
PER – 18.36
I love Rudy Gay! I’ve already wrote about how stupid the Rockets were to trade him. I see him being a 24 ppg – 7 rebound – 4 assists per game guy with good steals and blocks! The Grizzlies have their franchise player of the future in Rudy!

Luol Deng (22 yrs)
17.5 – 6.8 – 1.7 – 1.2 – 0.53 – 47% - 36 min
PER – 16.36
Luol has not met the loft expectations that were put on him. However, the whole team is struggling mightily to this point, so it could easily turn around. Deng has a phenomenal midrange shot and is a very craft offensive player. I’d like to see him rebound more, but that should come with time.

Kevin Durant (19 yrs)
20.3 – 4.6 – 1.9 – 0.95 – 1.33 – 39% - 34 min
PER – 14.82
Durant is living up to expectations so far. I know he’s not shooting a great percentage and he’s doing a poor job on the glass, but that will come with time. He’s only 19 years old. He has one of the purest shots I’ve even seen. He is fluid with the ball and he thrives to have the ball when the game is on the line. His competitiveness will push him to stay in the weight room and turn his weaknesses into strengths. He’ll average 28, 9 & 3 in a few years. Write it down!

Al Jefferson (22 yrs)
20.1 – 11.3 – 1.4 – 1.06 – 1.33 – 49% - 36 min
PER – 21.48
I’ve loved Al Jefferson since his rookie year. I’ve had him on my team since then too! He is already one of the most gifted lowpost scorers in the League, and he has a nose for the basketball. He’ll be a 20-10 guy for the next 10 years.

Josh Smith (22 yrs)
18 – 7.2 – 3.5 – 1.94 – 3.56 – 42% - 36 min
PER - 21.24
I can’t say enough about the season Josh Smith is having. Yes, he is not shooting great percentages, but he’s doing EVERYTHING else, so who cares! He’ll be a 20 ppg player by the end of the year while increasing his rebounds to 8 per game with the same assists, steals and blocks! Simply a monster. The sky’s the limit with Josh. If he gets a consistent midrange or outside shot, he’ll be unstoppable!

Chris Paul (22 yrs)
21 – 4 – 9.8 – 2.89 – 0.05 – 49% - 37 min
PER – 27.99
Chris Paul is reminding everyone that last year was not indicative of his ability. He is one of the five best point guards in the league, and he’s only 22. His future is bright.

Dwight Howard (22 yrs)
23.5 – 15 – 1.4 – 0.81 – 2.90 – 61% - 38 min
PER – 25.09
I have written more about Dwight than anyone else on my blog. DWIGHT FOR MVP!!! Therefore, I’ll just post David Thorpe’s (ESPN) scouting report on Dwight. Check it out, it's great reading:

Scouting Report: What Makes Dwight Howard so Dominant? by David Thorpe

LeBron James (22 yrs)
30.7 – 7.6 – 8.1 – 1.94 – 1.50 – 49% - 40 min
PER – 32.61
LeBron is LeBron. He is the only player who has even the slightest shot at over taking Jordan as the greatest player of all time (that’s a HUGE compliment from a guy who named his son, Jordan Michael). LeBron still has a ways to go before he can even think about surpassing Jordan (like win a championship or 6), but he is well on his way. He is the best player in the league!

If I expand the list to 23 years old you get players like Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh, Andrew Bogut, Raymond Felton, Travis Outlaw, and Carmelo Anthony! The future of the NBA is extremely bright!!

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